LONDON — Analysts and calculations from Reuters indicate that the world has lost more than US$50 billion (S$64 billion) in crude oil production since the Iran conflict began nearly 50 days ago, with the repercussions likely to last for months and even years.

On Friday (April 17), Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi announced that the Strait of Hormuz was open following a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump expressed optimism that a deal to conclude the Iran war would be reached "soon," although the exact timing remains uncertain.

Since the crisis erupted at the end of February, over 500 million barrels of crude and condensate have been removed from the global market, as reported by Kpler data, marking the largest energy supply disruption in modern history.

To put this loss into perspective, 500 million barrels of oil removed from the market equates to:

• A halt in global aviation demand for 10 weeks; no road travel by any vehicle worldwide for 11 days; or a five-day absence of oil for the global economy, according to Iain Mowat, principal analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
• Nearly a month's worth of oil demand in the United States, or over a month's supply for all of Europe, based on Reuters estimates.
• Approximately six years of fuel consumption for the US military, based on an annual usage of about 80 million barrels from the fiscal year 2021.
• Enough fuel to sustain the world's international shipping industry for around four months.

Gulf Arab nations experienced a loss of about eight million barrels per day in crude production during March, nearly matching the combined output of Exxon Mobil and Chevron, two of the largest oil companies globally.

Jet fuel exports from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman plummeted from about 19.6 million barrels in February to just 4.1 million barrels for March and April combined, according to Kpler data.

This decline in exports could have facilitated approximately 20,000 round-trip flights between New York's JFK airport and London Heathrow, based on Reuters estimates.

With crude prices averaging around US$100 per barrel since the onset of the conflict, these missing volumes account for approximately US$50 billion in lost revenues, according to Johannes Rauball, a senior crude analyst at Kpler.

This loss translates to a one percent reduction in Germany's annual gross domestic product, or roughly the complete GDP of smaller nations like Latvia or Estonia.

Full Restoration Could Take Years

Despite Foreign Minister Araqchi's statement about the Strait of Hormuz being open, the recovery of output and flows is anticipated to be gradual.

Global onshore crude inventories have decreased by about 45 million barrels thus far in April, according to Kpler.

Since late March, production outages have reached around 12 million barrels per day.

Heavier crude fields in Kuwait and Iraq may require four to five months to return to normal production levels, potentially prolonging stock draws throughout the summer, Rauball noted.

Additionally, damage to refining capacity and Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG complex suggests that full restoration of regional energy infrastructure may take years.